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The DCFHub Blog

Lack of recent updates

5/26/2014

0 Comments

 
It has come to my attention that neither the daily nor the current weekly updates properly updated this weekend. My apologies.

I have been extremely busy the last two weeks, and I haven't had the time to check the website beyond automated tasks. So, these issues may have popped up even earlier. I believe they are fixed now.
0 Comments

Finviz is down-No daily update

5/6/2014

0 Comments

 
The Finviz website, which is my current raw data source, is down tonight, so I am unable to update the current valuations. I apologize for any inconvenience, and I look forward to updating again whenever they get back up.
0 Comments

are overvalued stocks more likely to beat earnings?

3/27/2014

1 Comment

 
During the latest earnings season we saw some strong beats from the likes of Netflix and Facebook. According to the DCF Hub methodology, these stocks were quite overvalued (valuation percentage in excess of 200%) leading into the report.

Of course, the gains from those beats are evaporating now, but this has me thinking. Are overvalued stocks actually more likely to beat on earnings than undervalued stocks?

Here's how I think about it: if a stock is overvalued then either the market is excessively optimistic or the analyst estimates on which I base my calculations are excessively pessimistic. If the former is the case, then this has no bearing on the earnings report. It is just another day for mr. market to remain silly. But if the latter is the case, then the day of the earnings report is the day of reckoning.

I'll need to pull together some data to test this theory. But in my anecdotal experience, earnings report days have been opposite days for value investors.

Has anyone else experienced this?
1 Comment

March 27, 2014 Daily update

3/27/2014

0 Comments

 
The market discount rate today stayed at 7.5%. I believe we are on the precipice of a significant correction.

These are the Scotttrade margin interest rates today.
$0.01 - $9,999.99  - 7.75%
$10,000.00 - $24,999.99  - 7.50%
$25,000.00 - $49,999.99 -  7.25%

Until the market discount rate rises significantly above those borrower rates, mass margin calls and a mass meltdown seems imminent.

Here's an interesting link from Ray Dalio's Bridgewater. If you have thirty minutes go ahead and watch it. If you don't have thirty minutes bookmark it and watch when you do.

http://www.economicprinciples.org/
0 Comments

change is good

1/27/2014

1 Comment

 
I've made this point before, and I'll make it again.

But it bears repeating.

Net present valuations change rapidly, therefore, it is just as important to monitor the direction of the valuation as it is to buy at a discount.
1 Comment

A note on stock splits

1/16/2014

5 Comments

 
The historical prices and net present values presented on DCFHub are not adjusted for stock splits. I apologize if this creates any confusion.

This can have a big impact if you look at the list of top valuation gains and losses. A company with a recent stock split will shoot right to the top or bottom of the list. 

This anomaly can also impact the valuation percentage as well for short periods of time as the valuation are based on earnings per share analyst projections.

I'm trying to think of a way to fix or at least flag this, but until I do, just note this as part of your due diligence.
5 Comments

Weekly Distribution charts

11/9/2013

0 Comments

 
I have to admit- I haven't been updating these lately.

It looks pretty much the same every week, and I haven't been able to figure out an automated way to update the graphic, so I'm just leaving it most weeks.

Hopefully I'll figure out a better way to do this soon.

2/15/2014 Update: This is fixed. The current chart is current, and I will be updating historical charts over the next couple of weeks.
0 Comments

About the banner graphic and distributions

5/18/2013

0 Comments

 
Picture
So you may be wondering:

What are these bell curve charts on the site?

The distribution charts are a histogram that show the range of valuation ratios calculated each week by the DCFHub discounted cash flow valuation methodology. DCFHub uses these histograms to determine the current discount rate every week.

The idea is that the theoretical price per share (in this case, the net present value) should match the actual trading price per share as closely as possible, for as many tickers as possible. The valuation percentages should form a bell curve centered around a valuation percentage of 100%, and the less variance the better.

The bell curve chart on this page, and in the website banner, shows the distribution chart produced by the DCFHub discounted cash flow methodology compared to other common methods of valuing stocks. The valuation methods, in order of least variance to most variance are:

1. Discounted cash flow (orange line) 
2. PEG ratio (blue line)
3. Price-to-book value (green line)
4. Price to sales ratio (red line)
5. Price to cash (purple line)

Each of these methodologies produced a curve centered around 100%, but because the discounted cash flow methodology produces the tightest distribution, it did the best job predicting current stock prices.

Each week, DCFHub determines the market discount rate that best centers the valuation distribution curve at 100%. The discount rate and histogram are presented in the weekly results page. Theoretically, it is better to invest in the stock market when the market discount rate is higher.

It is worth noting that for these charts to work, the histogram must be constructed with exponential ranges. If you think about it, the opposite of a stock that is undervalued by 90% is not a stock that is overvalued by 90% (valuation percentage 190%) but rather one that is overvalued by 800% (valuation percentage of 900%).

Just in case anyone is wondering, the histograms used on DCFHub use the following ranges:
  • Under 1.26%
  • 1.26 to 1.58%
  • 1.58 to 2.00%
  • 2.0% to 2.51%
  • 2.5% to 3.2%
  • 3% to 4%
  • 4% to 5%
  • 5% to 6%
  • 6% to 8%
  • 8% to 10%
  • 10% to 13%
  • 13% to 16%
  • 16% to 20%
  • 20% to 25% 
  • 25% to 32%
  • 32% to 40%
  • 40% to 50%
  • 50% to 63%
  • 63% to 79%
  • 79% to 100%
  • 100% to 126%
  • 126% to 158%
  • 158% to 200%
  • 200% to 251%
  • 251% to 316%
  • 316% to 398%
  • 398% to 501%
  • 501% to 631%
  • 631% to 794%
  • 794% to 1,000%
  • 1,000% to 1,259%
  • 1,259% to 1,585%
  • 1,585% to 1,995%
  • 1,995% to 2,512%
  • 2,512% to 3,162%
  • 3,162% to 3,981%
  • 3,981% to 5,012%
  • 5,012% to 6,310%
  • 6,310% to 7,943%
  • 7,943% to 10,000%
  • Over 10,000%

0 Comments

    Peter Larson, Author

    I'm a father, engineer, investor, and this is my site. These are my thoughts on developing it and investing.

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